On this exclusive Macro Matters Series, guest host Kevin Kelly talks to Oliver Renick, lead anchor for TD Ameritrade Network, about his outlook for markets and the way Oliver and his team integrate Bitcoin & crypto into their day-to-day coverage. Oliver discusses his philosophy for covering markets and the move away from “momentum news”, the growing importance of bitcoin as a macroeconomic indicator, consensus expectations for monetary policy and the “Fed fulcrum”, what we can expect as the world tries to assess the economic fallout from coronavirus, and much more!

 

Key Points

 

  • Bitcoin’s potential as a high-beta safety play - similar to bonds and gold - with a very specific tie into interest rates and monetary policy trends.
  • The imminent risk of coronavirus and the potential ramifications on the global economy if the situation escalates further.
  • Market consensus for lower rates is at an extreme, implying asymmetric downside risk to the bond trade that’s pushed long-dated Treasury yields to their lowest level in history if the long-term impact of COVID-19 turns out to be less severe than expected.

 

Quotes

 

  • “There is an imminent risk that has no precedent basically and that is coronavirus and the potential economic impact due to China’s supply chain shutting down and the subsequent areas it might crop up in as well.” – Oliver Renick

 

  • “I suspect we need to continue to think about the risks associated with this concept of a free lunch, essentially, where the bond market can rally and the Fed will cut behind it.” – Oliver Renick

 

  • “If the market and signal being sent by gold and bonds right now are correct then it seems to suggest we’re going to be in a world of trouble because if the Fed has to cut again, after they said they didn’t want to cut, we really have to start giving more credence to the whole ‘bullets in the chamber’ argument.” – Oliver Renick

 

  • “There’s too much that’s based on this assumption that we’re only going one direction in rates.” – Oliver Renick

 

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Disclosures: This podcast is strictly informational and educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any tokens or securities or to make any financial decisions. Do not trade or invest in any project, tokens, or securities based upon this podcast episode. The host may personally own tokens that are mentioned on the podcast. Tom Shaughnessy owns tokens in ETH, BTC, STX, SNX, RUNE, sUSD and HNT. Let's Talk Bitcoin is a distribution partner for the Chain Reaction Podcast, and our current show features paid sponsorships which may be featured at the start, middle and/or the end of the episode. These sponsorships are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to use any product or service. Guest host Kevin Kelly holds tokens in BTC, ETH, RUNE, and LEO.

 

Music Attribution:

Cosmos by From The Dust | https://soundcloud.com/ftdmusic

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Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en_US 

 

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